Human Antithesis Blogspot

Human Antithesis Blogspot-41
I had a good debate with Robin Greenwood, Sam Hanson, Joshua Rudolph, and Larry Summers who wrote The Optimal Maturity of Government Debt (available here). A the time the yield curve was steeply upward sloping, and in their simulations they opined that the chance of short rates rising and long rates declining to the point that the cost advantage would invert was small.The current reality has changed that conclusion as now it is the short rates that are higher. Between "secular stagnation" and "r* has declined" and "savings glut" you can see economists making things up right and left.

I had a good debate with Robin Greenwood, Sam Hanson, Joshua Rudolph, and Larry Summers who wrote The Optimal Maturity of Government Debt (available here). A the time the yield curve was steeply upward sloping, and in their simulations they opined that the chance of short rates rising and long rates declining to the point that the cost advantage would invert was small.The current reality has changed that conclusion as now it is the short rates that are higher. Between "secular stagnation" and "r* has declined" and "savings glut" you can see economists making things up right and left.

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This contradiction creates a paradoxical image in the reader or listener's mind that generates a new concept or meaning for the whole.

Ever noticed that it's simply impossible to find seriously funny oxymoron?

If you borrow and sell short the first, you cannot deliver the second in return.

This segmentation would make the markets for each bond thinner, and the bid ask spread larger.

It would keep a lot of dealers and traders and market makers needlessly in business, which may be one good reason the financial industry seems largely against the idea. When the government borrows more next year, it is borrowing more of the same security.

There is one, thick, transparent, low-spread market. Much of the point is for the government to borrow at low rates. They were the cornerstone of UK finance for the entire 19th century.Avoid MIXED METAPHORS "He put his foot down with a firm hand".An Oxymoron is when two terms or words are used together in a sentence but they seem to contradict each-other.When the government wants to pay back the debt, it simply buys back the perpetuities on the open market. If the government issues a 0 100 year bond at 3%, only 100/(1.03)^100 = .20 of that value comes from the 0 principal payment.95% of the value of a 100 year bond is already in the stream of coupons.The first eventually replaces all long term debt, the second eventually replaces all short term debt, and the third replaces TIPS.The second is really more important, and I'll do a separate post eventually.Go look at the just released CBO Long Term Debt Outlook. Perhaps, but the insurance is cheap -- and with a flat or inverted yield curve it's even cheaper.Borrow long to buy insurance, not just for a good deal. In the paper I proposed that the Treasury issue 1) fixed-rate perpetuities -- a security that pays one dollar forever -- 2) floating-rate perpetuities -- just like Fed reserves, the interest rate adjusts daily and the price is always exactly

There is one, thick, transparent, low-spread market. Much of the point is for the government to borrow at low rates. They were the cornerstone of UK finance for the entire 19th century.

Avoid MIXED METAPHORS "He put his foot down with a firm hand".

An Oxymoron is when two terms or words are used together in a sentence but they seem to contradict each-other.

When the government wants to pay back the debt, it simply buys back the perpetuities on the open market. If the government issues a $100 100 year bond at 3%, only 100/(1.03)^100 = $5.20 of that value comes from the $100 principal payment.

95% of the value of a 100 year bond is already in the stream of coupons.

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There is one, thick, transparent, low-spread market. Much of the point is for the government to borrow at low rates. They were the cornerstone of UK finance for the entire 19th century.Avoid MIXED METAPHORS "He put his foot down with a firm hand".An Oxymoron is when two terms or words are used together in a sentence but they seem to contradict each-other.When the government wants to pay back the debt, it simply buys back the perpetuities on the open market. If the government issues a $100 100 year bond at 3%, only 100/(1.03)^100 = $5.20 of that value comes from the $100 principal payment.95% of the value of a 100 year bond is already in the stream of coupons.The first eventually replaces all long term debt, the second eventually replaces all short term debt, and the third replaces TIPS.The second is really more important, and I'll do a separate post eventually.Go look at the just released CBO Long Term Debt Outlook. Perhaps, but the insurance is cheap -- and with a flat or inverted yield curve it's even cheaper.Borrow long to buy insurance, not just for a good deal. In the paper I proposed that the Treasury issue 1) fixed-rate perpetuities -- a security that pays one dollar forever -- 2) floating-rate perpetuities -- just like Fed reserves, the interest rate adjusts daily and the price is always exactly $1.00 3) indexed perpetuities -- it pays one dollar adjusted for the CPI (or one of its improved versions) forever.Both similes and metaphors link one thing to another. A metaphor is a condensed simile, a shortcut to meaning, which omits "as" or "like." A metaphor creates a relationship directly and leaves more to the imagination. THEREFORE, do not get too far-fetched; otherwise, the images you conjure up may be confusing or foolish.Do not OVERUSE or sustain beyond the point of interest.

.00 3) indexed perpetuities -- it pays one dollar adjusted for the CPI (or one of its improved versions) forever.Both similes and metaphors link one thing to another. A metaphor is a condensed simile, a shortcut to meaning, which omits "as" or "like." A metaphor creates a relationship directly and leaves more to the imagination. THEREFORE, do not get too far-fetched; otherwise, the images you conjure up may be confusing or foolish.Do not OVERUSE or sustain beyond the point of interest.

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